This week events in Honduras have brought back horrible memories - the 'c' word - coup. It's like a geopolitical equivalent of Babycham, Slimcea, Bell-bottomed trousers ans sideburns - a reminder of the 1970s.
Africa has not been without its coups recently, such as in Mauritania and Guinea last year. The events in Madagascar were nothing short of a coup d'etat where an elected president was replaced not at the ballot box but through street protests, which no matter how well-organised would never have amounted to anything had the army not changed sides.
What's more I see that the president of Niger, Mamadou Tandja, is acting in something of a high-handed manner. He's dissolved his Parliament and the country's highest court. He's doing this because he wants to stay on in power. The Nigerien constitution gave him two terms, the last of which is coming to an end. The idea behind term limits on politicians is based on mistrust and the hope that there is a limit to the harm one person can do in a limited period. President Tandja points to his success as president of Niger and support for his remaining as president. Certainly there do not appear to be other would-be candidates to fill his shoes, and since taking power he certainly hasn't beggared his country; he didn't have to, as it was already at the bottom of mos international indices.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Guinea's coup
The reaction of the international community and many commentators to last December’s coup in Guinea shows woeful lack of understanding for African developments. Looking at the event through a really narrow and legalistic framework it has been characterised as an example of a step backward from “democratic” development to a world dominated by men with guns. But where was democracy in Guinea? It was a country whose many resources were being freely pillaged by a corrupt coterie close to the increasingly incapacitated President Conteh. While there were voices raised in opposition to his regime they were too feeble and badly organised to mount any effective resistance, and you got the feeling that, given half the chance, these civilian voices would be just as adept at the grand larceny of the state’s resources.
Captain Dadis Camara’s coup has the potential of wrenching the country out of this quagmire and offering Guinea and its people an alternative.
Elections are to be held later this year; indeed Camara wanted to hold them next year when the basic infrastructure for holding a poll might have been put in place, but the solicitous international community insisted that they be held sooner rather than better – as if going through the motions of holding a ballot can introduce democracy in a country with high levels of illiteracy and with no experience of casting ballots or counting them.
Captain Camara is not standing in the elections. This is a pity, because he has shown himself to have vision beyond what passes for vision among many of Guinea’s politicians - getting rich quickly. He joined the army after his university education, so he must be set apart from semi-literate thugs of the past like Samuel Doe or Idi Amin who used the army as a means of gaining power quite literally through the barrel of a gun.
He has pledged to hand over power to civilian politicians. Because such people wear business suits the international community feels more comfortable with them than uniformed soldiers. That such besuited figures are often thieves doesn’t seem to worry them – indeed it may be a further common feature.
Captain Dadis Camara’s coup has the potential of wrenching the country out of this quagmire and offering Guinea and its people an alternative.
Elections are to be held later this year; indeed Camara wanted to hold them next year when the basic infrastructure for holding a poll might have been put in place, but the solicitous international community insisted that they be held sooner rather than better – as if going through the motions of holding a ballot can introduce democracy in a country with high levels of illiteracy and with no experience of casting ballots or counting them.
Captain Camara is not standing in the elections. This is a pity, because he has shown himself to have vision beyond what passes for vision among many of Guinea’s politicians - getting rich quickly. He joined the army after his university education, so he must be set apart from semi-literate thugs of the past like Samuel Doe or Idi Amin who used the army as a means of gaining power quite literally through the barrel of a gun.
He has pledged to hand over power to civilian politicians. Because such people wear business suits the international community feels more comfortable with them than uniformed soldiers. That such besuited figures are often thieves doesn’t seem to worry them – indeed it may be a further common feature.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
A rogues' gallery
In recent days Gabon has been treated to a veritable rogue’s gallery as African heeds of State attended the lavish funeral of ex president Omar Bongo. Among those in attendance were fellow plutocrats and kleptocrats Paul Biya of Cameroon, Bongo’s father-in-law Dennis Sassou-Nouesso of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang Nguema, renowned the world over for his respect of human rights, a position he inherited from his uncle the Great Miracle Francisco Macias Nguema. (The word on the grapevine is he has AIDS, and while he’d like his son to take over, he couldn’t access the loot in a New York bank because there is an outstanding arrest warrant out for him for assaulting guests at a high society party he tried to gatecrash.)
But what had the presi8dent and former president of France, supposedly a liberal democracy here?
Of course Presidents Sarkozy and Bongo had a number of things I common. Both had serious height issues and Omar Bongo was known to wear platform shoes. Both men shared a passion for younger women whom they subsequently married, tough in Bongo’s case his most recent wife, the daughter of the president of the Congo, died a few months ago.
During the funeral ceremony both Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were booed by elements in the cro9wd. Strangely they weren’t saying “You neo-colonial bastards. Thanks for helping to maintain that greedy bastard and his family for the past four decades, while we the people of Gabon went short of food and basic healthcare.” No. The anti-French tone apparently stems from moves by French courts to charge Bongo with fraud. After all, Bongo had to go to a hospital in Spain for his medical treatment. But it’s obvious that Gabon and France are now the best of friends again, and Bongo’s son Ben-Ali Bongo won’t have to worry that he’ll be clapped in jail when he vests France after becoming president.
Ok, I know, he hasn’t actually been elected yet, but that’s just a formality, isn’t it.
But what had the presi8dent and former president of France, supposedly a liberal democracy here?
Of course Presidents Sarkozy and Bongo had a number of things I common. Both had serious height issues and Omar Bongo was known to wear platform shoes. Both men shared a passion for younger women whom they subsequently married, tough in Bongo’s case his most recent wife, the daughter of the president of the Congo, died a few months ago.
During the funeral ceremony both Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were booed by elements in the cro9wd. Strangely they weren’t saying “You neo-colonial bastards. Thanks for helping to maintain that greedy bastard and his family for the past four decades, while we the people of Gabon went short of food and basic healthcare.” No. The anti-French tone apparently stems from moves by French courts to charge Bongo with fraud. After all, Bongo had to go to a hospital in Spain for his medical treatment. But it’s obvious that Gabon and France are now the best of friends again, and Bongo’s son Ben-Ali Bongo won’t have to worry that he’ll be clapped in jail when he vests France after becoming president.
Ok, I know, he hasn’t actually been elected yet, but that’s just a formality, isn’t it.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Libreville
Libreville in Gabon is one of those schizophrenic African capitals. You land at an airport surrounded by leafy suburbs, not far from the beach. There is none of the anarchic and threatening hassle found at Kinshasa. From its nearly antiseptic locale you are whisked along four-lane highways along a palm-tree-fringed corniche fringed with swaying palm-trees and African sculptures which leads into the heart of the city; on one side the Atlantic ocean, on the other a sequence of gleaming ostentatious buildings, including the presidential residence and the Intercontinental Hotel, a symbol of the new neo-colonialism to afflict countries in Africa. The Quartier Louise is full of expensive boutiques, clubs and restaurants. It could be in metropolitan France, but it’s a little dirtier. Still it’s not too dissimilar in this respect from parts of Marseille, except for the excruciating temperatures.
Walk a little away from these quartiers, with their immaculate immeubles, and the seductive odours of Libreville’s chic shops give way to another, less inviting smell (not uncommon in Africa) of rotting fruit and vegetables, body odour, urine, excrement; the assault upon the olfactory senses produced by the concentration in confined spaces of the poor and the destitute.
Libreville could be called Bongoville, so well does it reflect the regime of Gabon’s deceased president Omar Bongo - a veneer of quasi sophistication hiding a reality of penury and want, a jarring testimony to a people whose wealth has been stolen by a few and squandered on flashy baubles.
Walk a little away from these quartiers, with their immaculate immeubles, and the seductive odours of Libreville’s chic shops give way to another, less inviting smell (not uncommon in Africa) of rotting fruit and vegetables, body odour, urine, excrement; the assault upon the olfactory senses produced by the concentration in confined spaces of the poor and the destitute.
Libreville could be called Bongoville, so well does it reflect the regime of Gabon’s deceased president Omar Bongo - a veneer of quasi sophistication hiding a reality of penury and want, a jarring testimony to a people whose wealth has been stolen by a few and squandered on flashy baubles.
Monday, June 8, 2009
This presiden't dead
The attitude towards Omar Bongo’s death-throws in Gabon reminds me of the old Monty Python sketch about the parrot: “This parrot’s dead”. “No it’s not, it’s just pining.” Less than twenty-four hours’ ago the Gabonese Prime Minister would have had his people believe that the man who’d been president for forty-two years was in rude good health and enjoying a holiday in Spain, though with his gargantuan wealth, the result of years of plundering state coffers, it wasn’t just a cheap package deal.
Gabon is a country which should be rich. It’s got lots of oil and a small population. Instead, the nation’s oil riches have generally been skimmed off by the president, his family and his wider circle of well-wishers, cabinet ministers, and senior civil servants. It is estimated that Bongo has real estate in France worth $190 million, while his bank accounts hold another $130 million. He and his mentor president Leon M’Ba, were French puppets, African ciphers who basically protected French political and commercial interests in French Equatorial Africa. The French have soldiers there, ostensibly to protect the many French civilians, though everyone knows that their real role is to protect the government in the event, highly unlikely, of civil unrest. In some ways Bongo has lately been the most civilised of dictators. Instead of killing opponents he has bribed them to stay quiet, a policy which some in the west should attempt to follow.
Lately Bongo’s French friends have become a little more lukewarm about backing their former allies in Africa. Sarkozy has been responsible for a lot of this reassessment. This is why Bongo did not make a bee-line for a nice, plus Parisian clinic on the first signs that the grim reaper were eyeing him up, but was forced to seek treatment in Barcelona. Had he landed in France there was the risk that he might have been arrested.
So what will happen to Gabon now? The constitution stipulates that the president of the senate, Mme Rose Francine Rogombe, should take charge in the event of the death of the head of state. Things are not quite as rotten as in Guinea. There is some infrastructure. The army is perfectly loyal. Because Bongo acted like a king, indeed an emperor, it is quite likely that power will eventually pass to one of his off-springs, maybe his son who is minister for Defence, but most people seem to accept that his daughter Pascaline is the real boss in Libreville.
Gabon is a country which should be rich. It’s got lots of oil and a small population. Instead, the nation’s oil riches have generally been skimmed off by the president, his family and his wider circle of well-wishers, cabinet ministers, and senior civil servants. It is estimated that Bongo has real estate in France worth $190 million, while his bank accounts hold another $130 million. He and his mentor president Leon M’Ba, were French puppets, African ciphers who basically protected French political and commercial interests in French Equatorial Africa. The French have soldiers there, ostensibly to protect the many French civilians, though everyone knows that their real role is to protect the government in the event, highly unlikely, of civil unrest. In some ways Bongo has lately been the most civilised of dictators. Instead of killing opponents he has bribed them to stay quiet, a policy which some in the west should attempt to follow.
Lately Bongo’s French friends have become a little more lukewarm about backing their former allies in Africa. Sarkozy has been responsible for a lot of this reassessment. This is why Bongo did not make a bee-line for a nice, plus Parisian clinic on the first signs that the grim reaper were eyeing him up, but was forced to seek treatment in Barcelona. Had he landed in France there was the risk that he might have been arrested.
So what will happen to Gabon now? The constitution stipulates that the president of the senate, Mme Rose Francine Rogombe, should take charge in the event of the death of the head of state. Things are not quite as rotten as in Guinea. There is some infrastructure. The army is perfectly loyal. Because Bongo acted like a king, indeed an emperor, it is quite likely that power will eventually pass to one of his off-springs, maybe his son who is minister for Defence, but most people seem to accept that his daughter Pascaline is the real boss in Libreville.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Leaving government to the politicians in Guinea
Captain Moussa Dadis Camara has announced that he will not be a candidate in the elections to be held in Guinea at some time towards the end of 2009. He was at pains to point out that none of the present governing council will contest them either.
His annoyance at the situation is understandable. The future of the country is to be left in the hands of politicians, albeit from the fractious opposition that sometimes appeared to former military strongman Lansana Conteh. These politicians are either venal or completely ineffective.
I think that, though Captain Camara will not take any part in the elections this year, we will eventually see him come to power again, once these civilian politicians have had a chance to run their country yet further into the abyss.
His annoyance at the situation is understandable. The future of the country is to be left in the hands of politicians, albeit from the fractious opposition that sometimes appeared to former military strongman Lansana Conteh. These politicians are either venal or completely ineffective.
I think that, though Captain Camara will not take any part in the elections this year, we will eventually see him come to power again, once these civilian politicians have had a chance to run their country yet further into the abyss.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Cheesed off in Conakry
Since seizing power in Guinea last December, Captain Dadis Camara (right) and his colleagues have done a lot to clear out the stygian stables of corruption that the country had become during the kleptocratic rule of the late Lansana Conteh. Conteh’s son has been charged with involvement in the drugs trade, while former ministers, including a former Prime Minister have also been taken to task and forced to give back the money they stole. Furthermore some unarguably iffy mining contracts have been cancelled or renegotiated.
But the international community, as well as some members of the feeble opposition to Conteh, have not been supportive of Camara’s efforts. Camara recognised that it would take time to organise elections. In a country with high rates of illiteracy and a feeble infrastructure, isn’t a rush towards elections mere folly? Elections shouldn’t be viewed as commodities to be bought and applied in a cynical way. Admittedly, in the bosom of Western Liberal Democracy elections are pretty much meaningless anyway, but in West Africa they just might be viewed with enthusiasm. The international community has therefore forced Captain Camara to hold elections this year, whereas he wanted to hold off until 2010. Guinea is still suspended from the OAU, which viewed Captain Camara’s seizure of power as illegal, but had nothing to say about the manner in which Lansana Conteh held the reigns of government. And then when Camara hinted that he might be a candidate in any future elections the international community went ballistic.
Captain Camara is understandably a bit pissed off with all this, and so part of the vilification process now involves portraying Dadis Camara as a man with a fiery temper. I must admit I would prefer a leader with a short temper to one who smiled self-contentedly as he viewed his accounts statements in a Swiss bank or sipped vintage champagne from antique goblets on board one of his executive jets or beside the pool in one of his palatial Cote D’Azur villas.
Dadis Camara had to look at the way the international community looked on while the country’s former rulers, in league with drug barons and mining companies, ritually pillaged Guinea.
But the international community, as well as some members of the feeble opposition to Conteh, have not been supportive of Camara’s efforts. Camara recognised that it would take time to organise elections. In a country with high rates of illiteracy and a feeble infrastructure, isn’t a rush towards elections mere folly? Elections shouldn’t be viewed as commodities to be bought and applied in a cynical way. Admittedly, in the bosom of Western Liberal Democracy elections are pretty much meaningless anyway, but in West Africa they just might be viewed with enthusiasm. The international community has therefore forced Captain Camara to hold elections this year, whereas he wanted to hold off until 2010. Guinea is still suspended from the OAU, which viewed Captain Camara’s seizure of power as illegal, but had nothing to say about the manner in which Lansana Conteh held the reigns of government. And then when Camara hinted that he might be a candidate in any future elections the international community went ballistic.
Captain Camara is understandably a bit pissed off with all this, and so part of the vilification process now involves portraying Dadis Camara as a man with a fiery temper. I must admit I would prefer a leader with a short temper to one who smiled self-contentedly as he viewed his accounts statements in a Swiss bank or sipped vintage champagne from antique goblets on board one of his executive jets or beside the pool in one of his palatial Cote D’Azur villas.
Dadis Camara had to look at the way the international community looked on while the country’s former rulers, in league with drug barons and mining companies, ritually pillaged Guinea.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Brazzaville - where lightning strikes twice
Congo-Brazzaville, the French part of Congo, is preparing for elections this summer. The question is will President Dennis Sassou-Nguessou run again. If he does it's a foregone conclusion he'll win. The opposition has already said it will boycott the polls because there isn't an independent electoral commission. A meeting of "stakeholders" including the government, was planned for yesterday April 14th, but then a number of loud explosions occurred in the capital. The army tried to dispel fears among participants that anything was amiss. All four explosions had been caused by lightning strikes on arms depots. Yeah!
Dennis Sassou-Nguessou is one of those strange but not atypical political animals, common in Eastern Europe but perhaps more to the fore in Africa. He was once a Marxist, a brother-in-arms of former president Marien Ngouabi who sought to turn Congo into a bastion of Marxist orthodoxy in central Africa. He was an ally of Moscow which poured in lots of political help including teachers of Russian. Young Congolese children were sent "voluntarily" to the Soviet Union for "education". I recall listening to the national radio station when Sassou-Nguessou was in power for the first time to a programme extolling the successful potato harvest in the vicinity of the capital which had been successfully brought in because "workers" including teachers and hospital doctors had freely given up their days off to do some digging.
Sassou-Nguessou was replaced in elections by long-time civilian opponent Pascal Lissouba, but then in 1997 Sassou-Nguessou fought his way back to the top - literally - leaving much of the once fine capital in ruins. He has won two elections since. But after his spell in the wilderness he came back a changed man ideologically. A champion of the free market i.e. a market in which he and his cronies are the only buyers and sellers and where they are free to charge whatever they want. He has personally grown rich on oil and natural gas royalties, just like his neighbour to the north (and in-law) Omar Bongo in Gabon and Jose Eduardo dos Santos in Angola (another former Marxist).
Dennis Sassou-Nguessou is one of those strange but not atypical political animals, common in Eastern Europe but perhaps more to the fore in Africa. He was once a Marxist, a brother-in-arms of former president Marien Ngouabi who sought to turn Congo into a bastion of Marxist orthodoxy in central Africa. He was an ally of Moscow which poured in lots of political help including teachers of Russian. Young Congolese children were sent "voluntarily" to the Soviet Union for "education". I recall listening to the national radio station when Sassou-Nguessou was in power for the first time to a programme extolling the successful potato harvest in the vicinity of the capital which had been successfully brought in because "workers" including teachers and hospital doctors had freely given up their days off to do some digging.
Sassou-Nguessou was replaced in elections by long-time civilian opponent Pascal Lissouba, but then in 1997 Sassou-Nguessou fought his way back to the top - literally - leaving much of the once fine capital in ruins. He has won two elections since. But after his spell in the wilderness he came back a changed man ideologically. A champion of the free market i.e. a market in which he and his cronies are the only buyers and sellers and where they are free to charge whatever they want. He has personally grown rich on oil and natural gas royalties, just like his neighbour to the north (and in-law) Omar Bongo in Gabon and Jose Eduardo dos Santos in Angola (another former Marxist).
Pieces of eight off Somalia
Pirates continue their "work" off Somalia, attacking (unsuccessfully) another US ship. But I have to ask, as I've asked before, do they know the identity of the vessels they are attacking, or is it a question of "pot luck"? Given that some vessels are likely to belong to countries which are better protected, and which will fight back, while others belong to shipping companies that are prepared to pay big ransoms, the choice of boat shouldn't be entirely random. What's more the Somali pirates appear to operate in small, independent groups, free of any central control - a concept which is anathema in Somalia.
But is it possible that we are applying some blinkered thinking here? The pirates are getting better organized, and they may not be just marine free-booters going out to sea each day to see what they can catch. Not wishing to seem like a conspiracy theorist, it is possible that the pirates are getting advance information about vessels approaching the Somali coast and Gulf Aden, allowing them an element of discretion and choice as to which vessels to target.
But is it possible that we are applying some blinkered thinking here? The pirates are getting better organized, and they may not be just marine free-booters going out to sea each day to see what they can catch. Not wishing to seem like a conspiracy theorist, it is possible that the pirates are getting advance information about vessels approaching the Somali coast and Gulf Aden, allowing them an element of discretion and choice as to which vessels to target.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Is Guinea Bissau a failed state?
It is hard to say anything about Guinea Bissau without being swept with a deep feeling of despair. As most people will know its former president, Nino Vieira, fell victim to assassins hours after the death of the head of the national army. The two events were not unconnected. In the aftermath the president of the national assembly took interim command, charged with supervising and arranging the elections which the constitution say must be held within sixty days of the death of a president.
But there's one big problem here: Guinea Bissau can't afford to hold elections. It's one of the poorest countries in the world, with hardly any infrastructure, apart from a few roads and shabby buildings left by the Portuguese thirty-five years' ago. Anyone who ever witnessed the impact of decades of Salazar's rule on parts of Portugal like the Alentejo will hardly be surprised that those far-flung fiefs of the Lusitanian empire fared no better.
Democracy's a high-sounding ideal, but it takes money. Not a lot, and certainly there is no excuse for the mountains of waste associated with election campaigns in the west, but in a country with few roads how do you get the ballot papers out to the polling stations? Possibly more important, how do you get them back? and what do you do with them then? You have to pay people to count the votes. Seems unenlightened but if you don't and the counters are starving what s there to stop them from declaring that the winner is the guy who offered them the biggest piece of bread?
The country may be dirt poor but it is awash with money - dirty money being spread by drug couriers anxious to get their cargo from Latin America to the affluent young professionals of Europe. The army seldom gets paid but they have guns and they are more than likely to prove friendly to drug lords, whether to turn a blind eye or to rough up anyone brave enough to speak out about what's happening in the country. That's what happened to a would-be presidential candidate in the last few weeks.
The west may turn away in horror at what is happening in a country so insignificant and non-strategic as Guinea Bissau, but it is a problem of the west's creation.
But there's one big problem here: Guinea Bissau can't afford to hold elections. It's one of the poorest countries in the world, with hardly any infrastructure, apart from a few roads and shabby buildings left by the Portuguese thirty-five years' ago. Anyone who ever witnessed the impact of decades of Salazar's rule on parts of Portugal like the Alentejo will hardly be surprised that those far-flung fiefs of the Lusitanian empire fared no better.
Democracy's a high-sounding ideal, but it takes money. Not a lot, and certainly there is no excuse for the mountains of waste associated with election campaigns in the west, but in a country with few roads how do you get the ballot papers out to the polling stations? Possibly more important, how do you get them back? and what do you do with them then? You have to pay people to count the votes. Seems unenlightened but if you don't and the counters are starving what s there to stop them from declaring that the winner is the guy who offered them the biggest piece of bread?
The country may be dirt poor but it is awash with money - dirty money being spread by drug couriers anxious to get their cargo from Latin America to the affluent young professionals of Europe. The army seldom gets paid but they have guns and they are more than likely to prove friendly to drug lords, whether to turn a blind eye or to rough up anyone brave enough to speak out about what's happening in the country. That's what happened to a would-be presidential candidate in the last few weeks.
The west may turn away in horror at what is happening in a country so insignificant and non-strategic as Guinea Bissau, but it is a problem of the west's creation.
Madagascar: power to the people?
The government of Marc Ravalomanana has been replaced by that of former DJ Andry Rajoelina. Madagascar is unique in Africa - many Malagasys prefer not to be thought of as Africans at all - in that its recent leaders have not had to wait until they gain power to acquire great wealth. Ravalomanana owed his fortunes to yoghurts and dairy products; Rajoelina has made a packet on bill-boards. He is rich and cannot present himself as a mouth-piece for the downtrodden masses against a grasping rapacious autocrat.
He is mistaken if he believes he's come to power on the crest of a popular revolution. Andry Rajoelina is in power today because the army switched their support to him. Why they did that is unclear: that is was for good motives is unlikely. What's certain is that he is now a hostage of the military. They gave him power, and what they gave, they can take away.
Recent events in Madagascar can hardly be called a victory for democracy. Ravalomanana won the last two elections fairly and quite squarely. Rajoelina is reluctant to hold a new election to legitimize his rise to power. For one thing, he's too young and the constitution bars people below a certain age from holding the presidency. Well what's a constitution only a scrap of paper? It wouldn't be the first to be torn up, and (worryingly) it wouldn't be the last.
The major problem facing Madagascar now is a lack of legitimacy by the new rulers. Try as they might to portray Ravalomanana as a greedy dictator the facts are that he still has massive support, especially in the countryside and among the middle classes. He made serious mistakes (what ruler hasn't) but his rule saw considerable benefits for many Madagascans. For too long the fourth largest island in the world was just a quite backwater of neo-colonialist Francophonie policies, too easily described as a "former French colony." Madagascar has the potential to be a bridge, cultural and economic, between south-east Asia and Africa. Many inhabitants of the island are descended from Indonesian and Malay settlers who landed on the island maybe a millennium ago. Their language belongs to the Malayo-Polynesian group. Ravalomanana was trying to tease his country away from its Francophonie heritage of colonial misrule and rubbing shoulders with corrupt states further north on the African continent.
Rajoelina has diverted his country away from possible posterity towards political instability in which it will unfortunately find too much in common with states in continental Africa.
He is mistaken if he believes he's come to power on the crest of a popular revolution. Andry Rajoelina is in power today because the army switched their support to him. Why they did that is unclear: that is was for good motives is unlikely. What's certain is that he is now a hostage of the military. They gave him power, and what they gave, they can take away.
Recent events in Madagascar can hardly be called a victory for democracy. Ravalomanana won the last two elections fairly and quite squarely. Rajoelina is reluctant to hold a new election to legitimize his rise to power. For one thing, he's too young and the constitution bars people below a certain age from holding the presidency. Well what's a constitution only a scrap of paper? It wouldn't be the first to be torn up, and (worryingly) it wouldn't be the last.
The major problem facing Madagascar now is a lack of legitimacy by the new rulers. Try as they might to portray Ravalomanana as a greedy dictator the facts are that he still has massive support, especially in the countryside and among the middle classes. He made serious mistakes (what ruler hasn't) but his rule saw considerable benefits for many Madagascans. For too long the fourth largest island in the world was just a quite backwater of neo-colonialist Francophonie policies, too easily described as a "former French colony." Madagascar has the potential to be a bridge, cultural and economic, between south-east Asia and Africa. Many inhabitants of the island are descended from Indonesian and Malay settlers who landed on the island maybe a millennium ago. Their language belongs to the Malayo-Polynesian group. Ravalomanana was trying to tease his country away from its Francophonie heritage of colonial misrule and rubbing shoulders with corrupt states further north on the African continent.
Rajoelina has diverted his country away from possible posterity towards political instability in which it will unfortunately find too much in common with states in continental Africa.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Madagascan mess
The situation on Madagascar is a mess. It is the fourth biggest island in the world, with a population of just over 20 million, so it's not over-populated. A lot of the land is poor, but there are extensive mineral resources, while Madagascar's tourism potential have never been developed fully.
Since Marc Ravalomanana came to power the mineral resources of the island have been opened to greater exploitation. This had not eased poverty, and seventy per cent of the people are estimated to live on less than $2 a day. This is the old story of "Resource curse", where the people of a country rich in natural resources often end up poorer than those of nations without such resources. Sections of the mining company are alive to the problem of resource curse, and have aimed to put in place mechanisms to ensure that more of the money from a country's mineral wealth go to the people.
Naturally, there is a lot of frustration, but must all the country's problems be laid at the feet of President Ravalomanana? He is quite unusual in Africa - a man who became wealthy prior to entering politics, rather than using his political control to enrich himself and impoverish the nation. Opposition leader Andry Rajoelina accuses him of being a tyrant, but let's not forget Ravalamana was elected for a second term as president only three years' ago.
And who is Andry Rajoelina? Nobody knows much about him, apart from the fact that he has made quite a lot of loot in his thirty-four years. He is also a former disc jockey. Now while the ranks of the world's leaders have been filled by a wide variety of occupations, skill in changing records or CDs, and an ability to keep people boogeying away to their hearts' content, are not really high in a rulers' skill-sets.
There is also the suspicion that Rajoelina is merely a trojan horse for those former rulers, especially people linked to the not very democratic rule of former president Desire Ratsiraka. They have never forgiven Ravalomanana for wresting control from them in 2001.
Rajoelina doesn't inspire trust. What's more he seems to have no time for the will of the people whom he claims to represent. Like many leaders of past and present he believes he knows the will of the people so well he doesn't have to bother asking them.
He wants to replace Ravalomanana. He has issued ultimata to the president to leave by a set time. He has promised that he would then "say goodbye" in person before taking the helm himself. He has rubbished the offer of a referendum offered by Ravalomanana, deriding it as a last desperate role of the dice. Ravalomanana is unpopular, yet he still commands support in many areas. We have seen strikes and demonstrations over the past few weeks, but these have mostly been confined to the capital Antananarivo. Rajoelina suspects that such a referendum might show that while the president is unpopular, that doesn't automatically mean the self-appointed leader of the opposition to him is viewed as the automatic solution.
The most recent Rajoelina act is to "demand" that the security forces arrest the president. He has set up a parallel administration, complete with prime minister and justice minister. Such an action is tantamount to a seizure of power. The security forces are divided, an indication of how restricted Rajoelina's support base is. Sections of the army are no longer taking orders from the president, while a segment of the army has ousted the presidentially-appointed chief-of-staff.
Even if Ravalomanana was to hand over power now to Rajoelina is it not possible that the charismatic former DJ will be unable to solve Madagascar's many problems? This may lead to street protests and further instability. Foreign investment would shy away even more. It would set a dangerous precedent; the only way ti respond to unpopular governments is by mass demonstrations. This says that change cannot come through the ballot box.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Susan Tsvangirai
When I heard of the circumstances of the dreadful crash which claimed Susan Tsvangirai's life, I was frankly suspicious. The car crash is a means of getting rid of troublesome opponents which has been widely used for years, not just in Africa, but even in such an apparently developed country as the Irish Republic.
It was caused by a vehicle swerving out of control. But the Tsvangirais' vehicle was the second in a three-car convoy. How come their car, out of the three, was the one that got hit? Zimbabwe's road system is a disaster, the result of years of non-investment. There was talk of the lorry that caused the crash having hit a pot-hole which caused it to spin out of control, but visitors to the site couldn't see any pothole.
I don't think I was alone in suspecting foul play, One of the others who I think was afraid that it wasn't an accident was President Robert Mugabe. This is based on the assumption, by no means proven yet, that he didn't order the crash to get rid of his opponent. But let's just give him the benefit of the doubt, a benefit which he rarely grants his people. It is possible that he may have believed that the "crash" was the work of some group of ZANU-PF enthusiasts who wanted to show their loyalty to The Boss, by ridding him of such a pesky personality as Tsvangirai, whom they suspect he really wants dead anyway. It's Henry II and Thomas Becket again: Will no one rid me of this troublesome prelate? Four knights after a few bevvies decide to boost their promotional prospects by doing just that, but because of the outcry they are rebuked for their actions.
Mugabe may be an octogenarian thug, but he's not stupid.
As for the visit to the hospital that was pure theatre of the worst kind. Imagine how poor Morgan must have felt, He's been injured; he knows that his darling wife has died, and he sees President Bob and the Missus around his bed. He must have thought he'd died and gone straight to hell.
It was caused by a vehicle swerving out of control. But the Tsvangirais' vehicle was the second in a three-car convoy. How come their car, out of the three, was the one that got hit? Zimbabwe's road system is a disaster, the result of years of non-investment. There was talk of the lorry that caused the crash having hit a pot-hole which caused it to spin out of control, but visitors to the site couldn't see any pothole.
I don't think I was alone in suspecting foul play, One of the others who I think was afraid that it wasn't an accident was President Robert Mugabe. This is based on the assumption, by no means proven yet, that he didn't order the crash to get rid of his opponent. But let's just give him the benefit of the doubt, a benefit which he rarely grants his people. It is possible that he may have believed that the "crash" was the work of some group of ZANU-PF enthusiasts who wanted to show their loyalty to The Boss, by ridding him of such a pesky personality as Tsvangirai, whom they suspect he really wants dead anyway. It's Henry II and Thomas Becket again: Will no one rid me of this troublesome prelate? Four knights after a few bevvies decide to boost their promotional prospects by doing just that, but because of the outcry they are rebuked for their actions.
Mugabe may be an octogenarian thug, but he's not stupid.
As for the visit to the hospital that was pure theatre of the worst kind. Imagine how poor Morgan must have felt, He's been injured; he knows that his darling wife has died, and he sees President Bob and the Missus around his bed. He must have thought he'd died and gone straight to hell.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Death of Kenyan human rights advocate
The murder of Oscar Kamau Kingara and a colleague in Nairobi yesterday bears all the hallmarks of a professional assassination. It took place in the middle of the city, less than a mile from both the Central Police Station and State House. It was obviously planned, and much more worrying, the police didn't arrive on the scene of the crime until two hours' later.
The finger of blame must point to the Kenyan police. Kingara had been openly critical of the police, accusing it of involvement in extra judicial killings and organizing death squads. The Kenyan police (no more than police forces in other countries) has long been a byword for corruption. They can be described as little better than pick-pockets in uniform, preying especially on motorists and those travelling by bus, who have to hand over money to avoid being apprehended for non-existent violations or documentary irregularities.
However, in the past number of years, they've become vicious. Part of this was linked to the activities of the Mafia-like Mungiki, a shadowy Kikuyu organisation operating protection rackets in the transport sector. The Mungiki have been targeted mercilessly. So too have anybody the police didn't like. Their modus operandi was usually brutal and short, but because they were the police, a culture of impunity reigned.
So Kenya, which seemed to be stepping out on to the right road when it ousted long-time kleptocrat Daniel arap Moi, is instead drifting towards becoming a state based on criminality.
The finger of blame must point to the Kenyan police. Kingara had been openly critical of the police, accusing it of involvement in extra judicial killings and organizing death squads. The Kenyan police (no more than police forces in other countries) has long been a byword for corruption. They can be described as little better than pick-pockets in uniform, preying especially on motorists and those travelling by bus, who have to hand over money to avoid being apprehended for non-existent violations or documentary irregularities.
However, in the past number of years, they've become vicious. Part of this was linked to the activities of the Mafia-like Mungiki, a shadowy Kikuyu organisation operating protection rackets in the transport sector. The Mungiki have been targeted mercilessly. So too have anybody the police didn't like. Their modus operandi was usually brutal and short, but because they were the police, a culture of impunity reigned.
So Kenya, which seemed to be stepping out on to the right road when it ousted long-time kleptocrat Daniel arap Moi, is instead drifting towards becoming a state based on criminality.
Zimbabwean anarchy
The situation in Zimbabwe is nothing short of anarchic. You have a situation where the Prime Minister no less is pleading in front of parliament for the release of some of his supporters. The rule of law is non-existent, when a magistrate who applies the law in a non-partisan way is arrested for granting bail to one of the prime minister's supporters, a man who incidentally has been accepted as a government minister.
Is this the result of some cynical ploy by Mugabe? Is he saying to Tsvangirai and the MDC "you can have the title of power and shared government, but you will be denied its exercise while I'm on the scene"? Or does it point to President Bob no longer being in control and able to reign in those elements of his supporters who are determined to scupper any power-sharing agreement? Such people probably feel that they are doing what Mugabe wants them to do, but is being prevented from doing himself. Maybe Mugabe is realising that he has helped unleashed genies from the bottle which even he cannot persuade to go back in.
In such a situation, the EU and US are right to retain sanctions against Zimbabwe, which is behaving like a failed state.
Is this the result of some cynical ploy by Mugabe? Is he saying to Tsvangirai and the MDC "you can have the title of power and shared government, but you will be denied its exercise while I'm on the scene"? Or does it point to President Bob no longer being in control and able to reign in those elements of his supporters who are determined to scupper any power-sharing agreement? Such people probably feel that they are doing what Mugabe wants them to do, but is being prevented from doing himself. Maybe Mugabe is realising that he has helped unleashed genies from the bottle which even he cannot persuade to go back in.
In such a situation, the EU and US are right to retain sanctions against Zimbabwe, which is behaving like a failed state.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Jurassic Park
There was a time when Africa's political landscape was dominated by dinosaurs. These were heads of state who'd been in power for donkeys' years, sometimes since independence. They were to be found especially amongst the Francophone countries of sub-Saharan Africa. They were invariably pro-French in their foreign policy, and generally pro-business in their domestic economic policies, especially when it came to growing and protecting their own sizable business interests. They provided stability. A good example was Felix Houphouet-Boigny, president of Cote D'Ivoire from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993 et apres lui la deluge!
Time's taken its toll on the dinosaurs, and there aren't too many left. There's Paul Biya in Cameroons, in power since 1982, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, president of Angola since 1979 and Dennis Sassou-Ngouessou in Congo-Brazzaville who also came to power first in 1979, but who hasn't held the top job uninterruptedly. But the real daddy stegassaurus is undoubtedly Sassou-Nguessou's son-in-law, Omar Bongo in Gabon.
Bongo, or Jean-Albert as he called himself before converting to Islam, has been president since November 1967, Actually he's been in charge since at least the summer of 1966 when his mentor and Gabon's first president Leon M'Ba handed over effective control because of ill-health. Forty-two years! That's some innings. At 73 he's still relatively young and shows no signs of giving up.
He has always been able to count on the backing of the French. When some soldiers tried to topple M'Ba the French put down the revolt. The reasons were fairly obvious: Gabon has huge oil reserves (and is a member of OPEC). Also, there are big uranium deposits there, and we all know how much the French rely on nuclear energy for their power.
But it seems that President Nic is starting to reassess France's legacy ties. For one thing, a French court has frozen President Bongo's bank accounts. It all goes back to a dispute between Bongo and a French businessman regarding the sale of a shipping-line to the president. There was a dispute about payment: the president probably felt that there shouldn't be any, and as the businessman just happened to be on Gabonese soil at the time of the spat. he was arrested and thrown into jail. It soon became known that the whole thing could be settled with sufficient goodwill and enough cash forthcoming from the other side, and so the businessman's son made a payment of something like $500.000 to President Bongo for his father's release. Once free daddy and son felt out of pocket, and a French court found in their favour and demanded that the president give the money back. Pending which they've frozen his bank accounts. And the French government and the Quai d'Orsay are saying and doing rien to help the president.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Bashi wanted for war crimes
So finally, the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Sudanese head-of-state Omar al-Bashir, accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan.
The ICC has said it will send the arrest warrant, along with a request for apprehension, to the Sudanese government, who will no doubt reply by saying "nuts".
President Bashir has already shown something less than contempt for the ICC and its arrest warrant, telling cheering supporters that as far as he was concerned the ICC could stick their arrest warrant up their ar....
As the ICC has no police force, and no-one in Sudan is likely to try and arrest him, the whole thing looks very much of the paper tiger. It might mean that al-Bashir might find foreign travel a problem, especially if another country said it would arrest him if he tried to step on its soil.
But this seems really unlikely. For one thing al-Bashir can play the Arab card. Arab solidarity would be unlikely to allow a brother Arab to be hauled before a court which al-Bashir has already described as "neo-colonial".
The fact that the ICC took such a decision, albeit one with so little clout, could not be anticipated. Al-Bashir has been portraying himself as a vital player, not just in Sudan but in wider African regional issues. "See me as part of the solution, not part of the problem." And then to indict a serving head-of-state of a nation. That's pretty big beer. Why it should be beats me, as it's usually the honcho in charge of things that's guilty of rights abuses.
The ICC has said it will send the arrest warrant, along with a request for apprehension, to the Sudanese government, who will no doubt reply by saying "nuts".
President Bashir has already shown something less than contempt for the ICC and its arrest warrant, telling cheering supporters that as far as he was concerned the ICC could stick their arrest warrant up their ar....
As the ICC has no police force, and no-one in Sudan is likely to try and arrest him, the whole thing looks very much of the paper tiger. It might mean that al-Bashir might find foreign travel a problem, especially if another country said it would arrest him if he tried to step on its soil.
But this seems really unlikely. For one thing al-Bashir can play the Arab card. Arab solidarity would be unlikely to allow a brother Arab to be hauled before a court which al-Bashir has already described as "neo-colonial".
The fact that the ICC took such a decision, albeit one with so little clout, could not be anticipated. Al-Bashir has been portraying himself as a vital player, not just in Sudan but in wider African regional issues. "See me as part of the solution, not part of the problem." And then to indict a serving head-of-state of a nation. That's pretty big beer. Why it should be beats me, as it's usually the honcho in charge of things that's guilty of rights abuses.
Don't forget us, pleads Guinea Bissau
In his inauguration the acting presiden of Guinea Bissau, Rolando Pereira, has pleaded not to be forgotten by the international community. His swearing in complies with the constitution which states that in the event of the death or incapacity of the head of state, the president of the National Assembly must take over in a care-taker capacity until elections are held within 60 days.
The whole ceremony was bizarre. There were minutes of silence for former president Vieira, and also for the man whose death triggered Vieira's assassination, army chief General Tigme Na Wai. It sounds almost Shakespearean, if not like something from a Mafia film.
The political establishment in the country, to the extent it can be said to have such a thing, is obviously determined to try and move swiftly on and deal with the events of the past 72 hours as something like a bad dream.
But is that possible? The army chief is blown up. All the fingers of suspicion point towards the president, who is then murdered by the army chief's friends. That's not how things are usually done, at least not in modern states.
The attitude of the African Union is a little hypocritical. Because there has been no coup and the army have not seized power, no action apart from words of condemnation have been uttered. Unlike in Guinea which got suspended, even though the coup that took place last December was popular and was probably the best thing for the country.
The whole ceremony was bizarre. There were minutes of silence for former president Vieira, and also for the man whose death triggered Vieira's assassination, army chief General Tigme Na Wai. It sounds almost Shakespearean, if not like something from a Mafia film.
The political establishment in the country, to the extent it can be said to have such a thing, is obviously determined to try and move swiftly on and deal with the events of the past 72 hours as something like a bad dream.
But is that possible? The army chief is blown up. All the fingers of suspicion point towards the president, who is then murdered by the army chief's friends. That's not how things are usually done, at least not in modern states.
The attitude of the African Union is a little hypocritical. Because there has been no coup and the army have not seized power, no action apart from words of condemnation have been uttered. Unlike in Guinea which got suspended, even though the coup that took place last December was popular and was probably the best thing for the country.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Welcome to African violets
Hi there! African violets aims to be a blog of news and quirky personal comment about events on the African continent. Africa is a fascinating place. Of all the continents it's the one with possibly the greatest potential. Sadly, we all too often hear only the bad news.
Possibly the biggest problems facing Africa is bad governance, and I will be untiring in pointing to this, and naming names.
Possibly the biggest problems facing Africa is bad governance, and I will be untiring in pointing to this, and naming names.
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