Madagascan mess

The situation on Madagascar is a mess. It is the fourth biggest island in the world, with a population of just over 20 million, so it's not over-populated. A lot of the land is poor, but there are extensive mineral resources, while Madagascar's tourism potential have never been developed fully.

Since Marc Ravalomanana came to power the mineral resources of the island have been opened to greater exploitation. This had not eased poverty, and seventy per cent of the people are estimated to live on less than $2 a day. This is the old story of "Resource curse", where the people of a country rich in natural resources often end up poorer than those of nations without such resources. Sections of the mining company are alive to the problem of resource curse, and have aimed to put in place mechanisms to ensure that more of the money from a country's mineral wealth go to the people.

Naturally, there is a lot of frustration, but must all the country's problems be laid at the feet of President Ravalomanana? He is quite unusual in Africa - a man who became wealthy prior to entering politics, rather than using his political control to enrich himself and impoverish the nation. Opposition leader Andry Rajoelina accuses him of being a tyrant, but let's not forget Ravalamana was elected for a second term as president only three years' ago.

And who is Andry Rajoelina? Nobody knows much about him, apart from the fact that he has made quite a lot of loot in his thirty-four years. He is also a former disc jockey. Now while the ranks of the world's leaders have been filled by a wide variety of occupations, skill in changing records or CDs, and an ability to keep people boogeying away to their hearts' content, are not really high in a rulers' skill-sets.

There is also the suspicion that Rajoelina is merely a trojan horse for those former rulers, especially people linked to the not very democratic rule of former president Desire Ratsiraka. They have never forgiven Ravalomanana for wresting control from them in 2001.

Rajoelina doesn't inspire trust. What's more he seems to have no time for the will of the people whom he claims to represent. Like many leaders of past and present he believes he knows the will of the people so well he doesn't have to bother asking them.

He wants to replace Ravalomanana. He has issued ultimata to the president to leave by a set time. He has promised that he would then "say goodbye" in person before taking the helm himself. He has rubbished the offer of a referendum offered by Ravalomanana, deriding it as a last desperate role of the dice. Ravalomanana is unpopular, yet he still commands support in many areas. We have seen strikes and demonstrations over the past few weeks, but these have mostly been confined to the capital Antananarivo. Rajoelina suspects that such a referendum might show that while the president is unpopular, that doesn't automatically mean the self-appointed leader of the opposition to him is viewed as the automatic solution.

The most recent Rajoelina act is to "demand" that the security forces arrest the president. He has set up a parallel administration, complete with prime minister and justice minister. Such an action is tantamount to a seizure of power. The security forces are divided, an indication of how restricted Rajoelina's support base is. Sections of the army are no longer taking orders from the president, while a segment of the army has ousted the presidentially-appointed chief-of-staff.

Even if Ravalomanana was to hand over power now to Rajoelina is it not possible that the charismatic former DJ will be unable to solve Madagascar's many problems? This may lead to street protests and further instability. Foreign investment would shy away even more. It would set a dangerous precedent; the only way ti respond to unpopular governments is by mass demonstrations. This says that change cannot come through the ballot box.

Susan Tsvangirai

When I heard of the circumstances of the dreadful crash which claimed Susan Tsvangirai's life, I was frankly suspicious. The car crash is a means of getting rid of troublesome opponents which has been widely used for years, not just in Africa, but even in such an apparently developed country as the Irish Republic.

It was caused by a vehicle swerving out of control. But the Tsvangirais' vehicle was the second in a three-car convoy. How come their car, out of the three, was the one that got hit? Zimbabwe's road system is a disaster, the result of years of non-investment. There was talk of the lorry that caused the crash having hit a pot-hole which caused it to spin out of control, but visitors to the site couldn't see any pothole.

I don't think I was alone in suspecting foul play, One of the others who I think was afraid that it wasn't an accident was President Robert Mugabe. This is based on the assumption, by no means proven yet, that he didn't order the crash to get rid of his opponent. But let's just give him the benefit of the doubt, a benefit which he rarely grants his people. It is possible that he may have believed that the "crash" was the work of some group of ZANU-PF enthusiasts who wanted to show their loyalty to The Boss, by ridding him of such a pesky personality as Tsvangirai, whom they suspect he really wants dead anyway. It's Henry II and Thomas Becket again: Will no one rid me of this troublesome prelate? Four knights after a few bevvies decide to boost their promotional prospects by doing just that, but because of the outcry they are rebuked for their actions.

Mugabe may be an octogenarian thug, but he's not stupid.

As for the visit to the hospital that was pure theatre of the worst kind. Imagine how poor Morgan must have felt, He's been injured; he knows that his darling wife has died, and he sees President Bob and the Missus around his bed. He must have thought he'd died and gone straight to hell.

Death of Kenyan human rights advocate

The murder of Oscar Kamau Kingara and a colleague in Nairobi yesterday bears all the hallmarks of a professional assassination. It took place in the middle of the city, less than a mile from both the Central Police Station and State House. It was obviously planned, and much more worrying, the police didn't arrive on the scene of the crime until two hours' later.

The finger of blame must point to the Kenyan police. Kingara had been openly critical of the police, accusing it of involvement in extra judicial killings and organizing death squads. The Kenyan police (no more than police forces in other countries) has long been a byword for corruption. They can be described as little better than pick-pockets in uniform, preying especially on motorists and those travelling by bus, who have to hand over money to avoid being apprehended for non-existent violations or documentary irregularities.

However, in the past number of years, they've become vicious. Part of this was linked to the activities of the Mafia-like Mungiki, a shadowy Kikuyu organisation operating protection rackets in the transport sector. The Mungiki have been targeted mercilessly. So too have anybody the police didn't like. Their modus operandi was usually brutal and short, but because they were the police, a culture of impunity reigned.

So Kenya, which seemed to be stepping out on to the right road when it ousted long-time kleptocrat Daniel arap Moi, is instead drifting towards becoming a state based on criminality.

Zimbabwean anarchy

The situation in Zimbabwe is nothing short of anarchic. You have a situation where the Prime Minister no less is pleading in front of parliament for the release of some of his supporters. The rule of law is non-existent, when a magistrate who applies the law in a non-partisan way is arrested for granting bail to one of the prime minister's supporters, a man who incidentally has been accepted as a government minister.

Is this the result of some cynical ploy by Mugabe? Is he saying to Tsvangirai and the MDC "you can have the title of power and shared government, but you will be denied its exercise while I'm on the scene"? Or does it point to President Bob no longer being in control and able to reign in those elements of his supporters who are determined to scupper any power-sharing agreement? Such people probably feel that they are doing what Mugabe wants them to do, but is being prevented from doing himself. Maybe Mugabe is realising that he has helped unleashed genies from the bottle which even he cannot persuade to go back in.

In such a situation, the EU and US are right to retain sanctions against Zimbabwe, which is behaving like a failed state.

Jurassic Park

There was a time when Africa's political landscape was dominated by dinosaurs. These were heads of state who'd been in power for donkeys' years, sometimes since independence. They were to be found especially amongst the Francophone countries of sub-Saharan Africa. They were invariably pro-French in their foreign policy, and generally pro-business in their domestic economic policies, especially when it came to growing and protecting their own sizable business interests. They provided stability. A good example was Felix Houphouet-Boigny, president of Cote D'Ivoire from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993 et apres lui la deluge!

Time's taken its toll on the dinosaurs, and there aren't too many left. There's Paul Biya in Cameroons, in power since 1982, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, president of Angola since 1979 and Dennis Sassou-Ngouessou in Congo-Brazzaville who also came to power first in 1979, but who hasn't held the top job uninterruptedly. But the real daddy stegassaurus is undoubtedly Sassou-Nguessou's son-in-law, Omar Bongo in Gabon.

Bongo, or Jean-Albert as he called himself before converting to Islam, has been president since November 1967, Actually he's been in charge since at least the summer of 1966 when his mentor and Gabon's first president Leon M'Ba handed over effective control because of ill-health. Forty-two years! That's some innings. At 73 he's still relatively young and shows no signs of giving up.

He has always been able to count on the backing of the French. When some soldiers tried to topple M'Ba the French put down the revolt. The reasons were fairly obvious: Gabon has huge oil reserves (and is a member of OPEC). Also, there are big uranium deposits there, and we all know how much the French rely on nuclear energy for their power.

But it seems that President Nic is starting to reassess France's legacy ties. For one thing, a French court has frozen President Bongo's bank accounts. It all goes back to a dispute between Bongo and a French businessman regarding the sale of a shipping-line to the president. There was a dispute about payment: the president probably felt that there shouldn't be any, and as the businessman just happened to be on Gabonese soil at the time of the spat. he was arrested and thrown into jail. It soon became known that the whole thing could be settled with sufficient goodwill and enough cash forthcoming from the other side, and so the businessman's son made a payment of something like $500.000 to President Bongo for his father's release. Once free daddy and son felt out of pocket, and a French court found in their favour and demanded that the president give the money back. Pending which they've frozen his bank accounts. And the French government and the Quai d'Orsay are saying and doing rien to help the president.

Bashi wanted for war crimes

So finally, the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Sudanese head-of-state Omar al-Bashir, accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan.

The ICC has said it will send the arrest warrant, along with a request for apprehension, to the Sudanese government, who will no doubt reply by saying "nuts".

President Bashir has already shown something less than contempt for the ICC and its arrest warrant, telling cheering supporters that as far as he was concerned the ICC could stick their arrest warrant up their ar....

As the ICC has no police force, and no-one in Sudan is likely to try and arrest him, the whole thing looks very much of the paper tiger. It might mean that al-Bashir might find foreign travel a problem, especially if another country said it would arrest him if he tried to step on its soil.

But this seems really unlikely. For one thing al-Bashir can play the Arab card. Arab solidarity would be unlikely to allow a brother Arab to be hauled before a court which al-Bashir has already described as "neo-colonial".

The fact that the ICC took such a decision, albeit one with so little clout, could not be anticipated. Al-Bashir has been portraying himself as a vital player, not just in Sudan but in wider African regional issues. "See me as part of the solution, not part of the problem." And then to indict a serving head-of-state of a nation. That's pretty big beer. Why it should be beats me, as it's usually the honcho in charge of things that's guilty of rights abuses.

Don't forget us, pleads Guinea Bissau

In his inauguration the acting presiden of Guinea Bissau, Rolando Pereira, has pleaded not to be forgotten by the international community. His swearing in complies with the constitution which states that in the event of the death or incapacity of the head of state, the president of the National Assembly must take over in a care-taker capacity until elections are held within 60 days.

The whole ceremony was bizarre. There were minutes of silence for former president Vieira, and also for the man whose death triggered Vieira's assassination, army chief General Tigme Na Wai. It sounds almost Shakespearean, if not like something from a Mafia film.

The political establishment in the country, to the extent it can be said to have such a thing, is obviously determined to try and move swiftly on and deal with the events of the past 72 hours as something like a bad dream.

But is that possible? The army chief is blown up. All the fingers of suspicion point towards the president, who is then murdered by the army chief's friends. That's not how things are usually done, at least not in modern states.

The attitude of the African Union is a little hypocritical. Because there has been no coup and the army have not seized power, no action apart from words of condemnation have been uttered. Unlike in Guinea which got suspended, even though the coup that took place last December was popular and was probably the best thing for the country.

Welcome to African violets

Hi there! African violets aims to be a blog of news and quirky personal comment about events on the African continent. Africa is a fascinating place. Of all the continents it's the one with possibly the greatest potential. Sadly, we all too often hear only the bad news.

Possibly the biggest problems facing Africa is bad governance, and I will be untiring in pointing to this, and naming names.